$LULU 2Q26 Immediate Call Postmortem
Setting Heidi up to win is one thing. And boy did Meghan and Andre say many things that made it sound like the wheels have fallen off the bus. But Meghan explicitly stated “we expect she (Heidi) will take a deep dive into the business, evaluating our strategy and current action plan”. That doesn’t sound like a near term thing. As we said in our note earlier this week: It’s almost certain that Heidi will not have the same grace period that Elliott Hill at Nike enjoyed given the credibility hole she already sits in with investors (largely thanks to the incumbent Board).
At this point, can anybody honestly say they don’t want Chip Wilson back? Two paths of thought: 1) The Board stepped up and took a hit to set the Heidi O’Neill era up for massive success by clearing the decks. 2) Everybody on the Board prior to Chip’s proxy battle needs to go and needs to go now. I am just happy that I set the low end of my reasonable EPS range for this year at $9.50 earlier this week 😉
Shortfall primarily driven by China Mainland. As move into Q3, overall consumer response is inconsistent. Q3 has “gotten off to a slow start”. At highest level, revenue guidance for 2H assumes a slower trend relative to Q2. Same statement as last quarter about how they have plans to do better but have not factored this potential into the financial outlook.
Product teams chasing into strong performers including Groove and Define styles more aggressively than in the past. We got the same 20% chase metric as last quarter. Greater than expected slowdown in some core categories, particularly leggings and women’s tops. Leggings down 20%, and while were planning into lower sales and seeing good traction in away from body styles not able to fully offset the declines. Overall bottoms were down MSD.
Other things that were good: Metal Vent Tech, Steady State, Scuba, A-line Foldover Jogger, Breezily, golf shirts, ABC pants, updated Dance Studio pant.
Top priority is returning to full price sales growth, which came across loud and clear and was a constant excuse for regional sales shortfalls. Markdowns were up 70 basis points versus guidance for 50 basis points. Expect a 60 basis point increase in 3Q, so slight moderation and then flat in 4Q given the easy compare (this path is inline with what they said last quarter). On a unit basis inventory is down 7% - that’s not terrible for overall sales trends. Continue to focus on full price selling but slower than expected top line trends will necessitate additional seasonal clearance.
Taking more aggressive stance on expense management. Called out AI as an opportunity – come on Meghan the guy who ran that just left the company. Focusing on travel professional fees, store labor hours, and “headcount growth moderation”. I don’t like layoffs, but when you miss your long-term 2026 sales goal of $12.5 billion by ~20%, “growth moderation” isn’t enough – cuts are a requirement. They are cutting store openings to 35 from 40 and popup stores to 40 from 65 last year. You have to wonder why they aren’t taking a hatchet to everything else. SG&A deleverage includes increased marketing spend and continued strategic actions to support future growth, despite “significant savings from enterprise enablement pillar” (from the guy who just left the company).
Ike (famous for being first to call out the de minimis problem last year) nailed the main problem here in Q&A which is cost structure of business relative to what they expected growth to originally be.
The blamed China Mainland shortfall on Great Wall media problems as well as Tmall, including an intentional decision not to participate in promotions. Then immediately talked about “partnering with Tmall” as an opportunity ahead. Andre really did not help assuage fears here later when Binetti asked for more detail – honestly sounded lost. Macro in China not key issue for 2H.
Blamed Australia weakness on not participating in promotional events. Japan “brand remains strong” but they noticeably tried to conflate that with revenue growth. EMEA weakness was because of the Iran war and tourism problems.
Straton asks first question and focused on “fleet rationalization”. Half the openings in North America are popup conversions where they have strong data on consumer response. Not shocking that the sellside is super focused on this topic (we discussed in our note earlier this week) but its really not like Lululemon has a ton of stores (377) in the US to begin with (for a brand that reaches a broad TAM). Lorraine piled on and asked if they would “pause” expansion in China – she has to know they don’t have many stores there (173).
Howard (IR) said “Meghan will talk about how they will drive improved performance” in his legal disclaimer and disclosure call intro. That was interesting – can’t remember anyone ever doing that before (but maybe I just never noticed before).
*These are our unabridged quick thoughts and notes from the call. We get them out as soon as possible after the call ends (not edited). Management has given some topics to dig deeper into and will circle back afterwards with much more in depth work on what was mentioned. You can find that work (and more on Lululemon and other retail/consumer research) at the website link in our profile. We currently cover 20 companies in total but all work on Nike and Restoration Hardware will always be provided for free.